Mark Carney. Call a Political Sovereignty Election.
Donald Trump is demanding that Canada make a long list of concessions in pursuit of a renewed trade deal by August 19 2026. Or else he will impose 50 percent tariffs. And if you appease him on this, he will up the ante again, and demand more concessions. Or else. And if you appease him this second time, he will demand yet another set of concessions. Ad infinitum. According to the Globe and Mail of Saturday August 8, 2026.
I make this appeal to my prime minister, Mark Carney. I do not pretend to have all the information that you have in order to make decisions about tactics in bargaining.
My intuition is that you should intentionally fail to make the concessions before August 19th. Call his bluff. This is what will make the headlines, regardless of what might come soon afterward (or not). You want the headline to be Mark Carney Refuses Appeasement and Seeks the Time to Get a Good Deal for Everyone. You don't want the headline, or lead paragraph, to have any mention of Neville Chamberlain in it.
Whatever you do, I urge you to Call a Political Sovereignty Election.
Make political sovereignty the issue in the US-Canada trade deal negotiations
Why should you call a political sovereignty election?
Three reasons. First, the choice of ragging the puck until after the US midterms is not an option that actually exists. (Ironically any chance of that happening will only exist if you stand up to Trump, and he decides to put things off until after November). Trump will get you to make one set of concessions on August 19. Then he will say thank you very much and issue a new set of demands for concessions for Phase Two of the negotiations. You already know this.
My point here is that there is no such thing as an interim deal, and you should allow that to be a dealbreaker. You should say that you want a deal that is a win for everyone, but that can only be a single stage negotiation for a final replacement for the existing USMCA deal. An interim deal can only result in serious violations of Canada's political sovereignty. If and when Trump is stupid enough to actually impose 50 percent tariffs, that is exactly how everyone will see it. (They will at least see it as extortion, but they can readily be brought to see it as crude old-style colonialism as well).
Choosing the path of an interim deal, and appeasement, is very unlikely to prevent this from happening. This is especially the case if any of the concessions involve ceding Canada's political sovereignty. This would be the case if there is wording that locks Canada into future iterations of two things that do in fact require surrender of Canada's right to decide on its own domestic and foreign policies.
Number one is agreeing to wording that ties Canada in to future US policies to construct and expand a Fortress America. Number two is to join the Golden Dome military program. The first proof of loyalty required for the latter will be to buy the technologically inferior and ever more expensive F35s. But you know all this already.
Trump Is In A Weak Political Position Over Tariffs. The Main Reason Is Not the Midterms. It is the Underlying Weakness of the US Economy Being Covered Up by the AI Investment Boom. Big Business, and the Bond Markets, Will Not Tolerate a Jump in Inflation due to Iran and Tariffs.
As many others have pointed out, or at least inferred, Trump is in a weak political position when it comes to imposing 50 percent level tariffs on Canada (especially since Trump is threatening big tariffs on many other countries at the same time). He might do it, but he would be hurting himself politically in many ways if he did.
The weakness of Trump's position is only partly that, after US Labour Day, US voters will be presumed to be paying attention to political issues, and be starting to think how they will vote in November. Republicans who want to be (re)elected will demand that Trump stop imposing tariffs until after the midterms. The tariffs are very unpopular. And they also make whatever bad things are perceived as happening in the economy seem to be the result of the tariffs, and of what Trump and Republican policies are doing to the economy.
Trump's position is also weak because some economists are starting to say publicly that the US economy is actually not in very good shape. Some have already declared that this would be quite apparent if you set aside the impact of the vastly increased levels of investing in AI related companies. Others are predicting that Trump cannot lessen the inflationary impact of the Iran war for much longer, maybe another month or so, because the US oil reserves that are being drawn down to keep oil and gas prices to the US consumer down cannot be drawn down much further or much longer.
Pressure from Republicans to drop all mention of tariffs (and to put a temporary end to the Iran war) until after election day, so that they are not election issues, is one thing. But the threat of inflation starting to get much higher starting in September is something that will upset US Big Business. And pressure from them, not to mention the international bond markets, would be of a higher order than just grumbling from the relatively few Republican candidates that are not in (gerrymandered) safe seats or safe Senate races, as significant as that will nevertheless be.
Mark Carney, You Were Elected To Stand up to Trump’s Threats to Treat Canada as the 51st State. If You Fail to Do This, You Are Finished Politically.
The second reason is that the only other choice that you, Mark Carney, have is to fold now and then end up being forced to stand up to Trump later. And even in the worst case scenario, appeasing now and standing up later will gain you nothing.
You were elected in the last election for one reason, other than your perceived greater experience in dealing with economic matters at an international level. You were elected to stand up to Trump, who was threatening to make Canada the 51st state. If and when you fail to do that, and to do it boldly and clearly, you are finished politically. It sounds extreme to say so, given how high your favourables are in current opinion polls. But if you fail at the one thing that you were elected to do, the new emperor will have no clothes, and it will only be a matter of time.
Take a stand now, and if necessary call a federal election to get a mandate to uphold Canada's political sovereignty. At worst, the US will impose the same set of concessions on Canada that it was always going to impose anyway. Except that you will have refused appeasement in defence of a clear new red line. Any trade deal must respect Canada's right to make its own decisions. It must respect our political sovereignty. And you are going to the people to ask them to say if they agree. This is something that is very easy for all American citizens to understand, not just Canadians. It is what they want for their own country. The Declaration of Independence.
Third, making anti-colonialism the issue, and having almost all Canadian social and political forces join in affirming this as a red line in the course of the election, does two things. It strengthens the Canadian negotiators at the bargaining table. It also draws a red line that political forces within Canada (e.g. Alberta separatists) will find more difficult to cross.
Anti-colonialism is not the same thing as promoting empty flag-waving Canadian nationalist and/or protectionist sentiments. It establishes a basis of unity, political sovereignty, that goes across partisan political lines.
Holding the election is also a way to respond forcefully if Trump imposes 50 percent tariffs without having to begin an overt tit for tat trade war, but that is a secondary and purely tactical maneuver consideration. (There are arguments for imposing counter tariffs while also calling a sovereignty election -- the main reason would be to put a Canada-US trade war in the headlines in the US, so as to put pressure on Trump to make a deal quickly to get it out of the headlines.)
Please call a political sovereignty election. And let Canada win big, no matter what practical concessions get imposed on us.